The Coming Electoral Realignment

May 14, 2015

The rallying cry for Democrats after two consecutive electoral victories in presidential cycles has been described variously as the ‘Blue Wall’, the ‘Emerging Democratic Majority’, and as ‘Crusty Old White Male-itis’. The happy refrain for Democrats in all these memes is the same: Republicans are for the foreseeable future going to be crippled electorally by high turnout and growing numbers of minority voters. The GOP is going to keep losing elections for as long as they cling to out of touch Republican principles like the rule of law, respect for life and individual liberty, which apparently–as the conventional wisdom goes, does not appeal to Blacks or Hispanics.

img_3661Similar thinking saturated Republican groupthink in 2004 after Republicans had won the White House for the seventh time in ten elections (and Democrats had only once successfully received more than fifty percent of the vote during that time), until Barack Obama won twice. Success, sans perspective, tends to breed the misplaced expectation that it will continue unabated, and the corresponding rationalizations to reinforce those expectations in spite of facts. Just ask Yankee fans about the mid-2000’s. Or Republicans in the late 2000’s. Or Democrats… In 2016.

The fatal flaw in the permanent Democratic majority argument is hiding in plain sight, if only people looked. Barack Obama performed extremely well among Blacks and Hispanics in both 2008 and 2012, and minority voters are a fast growing segment of the population. The pollyannic plan for Democrat presidential success, driven by growing minority populations and a dwindling White population, makes the mistake of counting on continued Democratic growth from Hispanic and Black demographics and also a static contribution from their White base (yes, Whites are still the majority of Democrat voters).

This is a really, really bad plan. First of all, Democrat election prospects in 2012 hinged on hyper-elevated turnout among Blacks and Hispanics (as well as young voters). Democrats and many pollsters make the mistake of assuming this trend will continue once the first Black president is no longer on the ballot. While it remains to be seen whether Barack Obama permanently changed the electoral landscape in 2008 and forever raised minority turnout in presidential election years, we can safely say that no such trend carried over into 2010 and 2014, when Republicans scored historic electoral victories. When Obama isn’t on the ballot or when he is campaigning for other Democrats, minority turnout returns to historical normalcy. In 2010 and 2014, this meant that Republicans won and the pre-election polls were mostly wrong. Why should we expect this pattern to change in 2016?

The working and middle classes are becoming more Republican. John Judis, repentant author of “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” said on the topic of the middle class: “In exit polling, they can roughly be identified as those who have college—but not postgraduate—degrees and those whose household incomes are between $50,000 and $100,000.” This group is now a GOP stalwart, and is growing in strength, not diminishing. The white working class, roughly defined as white, with no college degree, is gravitating toward the GOP so fast it is a small wonder it doesn’t burn up upon re-entry.

Judis goes on: “In the 1980 presidential election, the white working class made up about 65 percent of the electorate; by 1988, it was 54 percent; by the 2008 election, it was just 39 percent. Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin estimate that by 2020, it’ll be 30 percent of the electorate. On the other hand, voters with college degrees but not postgraduate degrees went from 26 percent of the electorate in 2004, to 29 percent in 2012, to 31 percent in the last election. ”

Thus, the GOP finds itself with one growing demographic and one shrinking demographic–but US demographics are not uniform, everywhere.  There are states where large white working and middle class voter blocs dominate, in the Midwest and Rust Belt. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), for instance, is 42% middle class voters, and 54% white working class. Obama lost whites in 2012 by 6%. Other states with large white working class and middle class demographics (and generally fewer minorities) include Iowa (6 electoral votes), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Minnesota (10) and New Hampshire and her 4 electoral votes. That’s a total of 84 electoral votes that the GOP will be able to claim, possibly as soon as 2016.

Meanwhile, demographic trends in other states with large numbers of gentry liberals like Virginia (13 electoral votes) and Colorado (9), and those with heavy minority populations like North Carolina (15) and possibly even Georgia (16) could find themselves in the (D) column in coming years. That’s 53 electoral votes.

Consider this: When President Obama was elected in 2008, the Pew Research Center found that 44 percent of whites aligned themselves more closely with Democrats, while 42 percent did so with Republicans. In 2014, that two-point deficit for Republicans had transformed into a whopping nine-point GOP advantage. According to Pew, 49 percent of whites now consider themselves Republicans, while just 40 percent view themselves as Democrats. That is terrible news for Democrats. With numbers like that, it might take a decade or so before they can claim states like Georgia and North Carolina.

The map is changing. The only question is when the dam will break.


Final Electoral Update 2012

October 27, 2012

Hurricane Sandy is bearing down on the Eastern Seaboard as the 2012 presidential election reaches its most feverish pitch, and there is a torrent of prognostication out there.  With roughly two weeks left before the 2012 presidential election there is still a lot of bluster about who will win. My blog space is no exception, but the reader should rest assured that your author came within a handful of seats in the 2010 mid-terms of predicting a perfect 63 seat swing.  This in the face of myriad pundits and political analysts who called my careful estimates wishful thinking, bordering on homerism and insanity.  Rest assured, Exile reader, though I clearly favor Mitt Romney, this is purely objective.

Mitt Romney has a clear advantage in the popular vote, holding onto about a 51-47 advantage. When undecideds are factored in on Election Day, the majority of undecideds choose the challenger in 82% of elections, so that number should widen just a little bit, probably to 52-48. This doesn’t amount to a hill of beans without a victory in the Electoral College which requires 270 electoral votes (for those of you who are curious, an election which is tied in the Electoral College gets kicked to the House, where Mitt Romney would undoubtedly win due to the enormous Republican advantage there). In one final election update here, I will try to project the final tally. Read the rest of this entry »

GOP Dirty Harry > Dem Dirty Harry

August 31, 2012

Clint Eastwood – Actor, Director, Producer, Mayor, and American icon.

Hypocrites.  Clint Eastwood makes a commercial for GM for the Super Bowl that you think helps your party, and Clint Eastwood is an American hero. He makes a speech at the RNC where he makes fun of Obama and he gets nothing but derision as crazy. You know your party is out of ideas when all you can do at the end of the opposition’s convention is to blast an old actor.

The Shot Heard ‘Round the World

January 18, 2010

Daniel Chester's French Minuteman. Scott Brown could fire the next 'Shot Heard 'Round the World' on Tuesday by putting Democrats on notice that the tyranny of liberalism will not be tolerated for long by the usually silent majority. Get ready for 2010.

In early 1775 the primordial United States was in turmoil.  The colonists and their British overseers had been involved in frequent arguments, confrontations and demonstrations, and tensions were mounting.  As the Redcoats looked to pinch off the disorganized colonists’ network of supplies and to stymie any possible rebellion, British regulars met the Minutemen and a small contingent of colonial American militiamen in the sleepy New England towns of Lexington and Concord, Massachusetts. You may have heard of them.  It was at Lexington,  on April 19th, 1775 that an unknown colonist fired a single shot, that like a spark to the fuse of a powder keg, ignited the greatest revolution the world has ever known.  The “Shot Heard Round the World,” spawned the greatest nation the world has ever known.   Ragtag ruffians from the colonies, derided by their adversary through six pitched years of battle, defeated the best funded, best trained, best organized, best supplied and most formidable military force on the planet and wrestled independence from the hated British.

Today Massachusetts, though notably more liberal, stands as a similar milestone in American history.  On Tuesday, January 19th, 2010, Scott Brown, the conservative Republican nominee for the Senate seat vacated by Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, takes on state Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, for what would undoubtedly be the 60th vote in the Senate for Democrats.  A seat which, in any other year, would be a runaway victory for Joe Democrat in the most liberal state in America.  However, in 2009 the Democrats, flush in both Houses of Congress, were hounded amidst a year in which they rammed through an unpopular and failed stimulus bill, continuously blundered international affairs and the war in Afghanistan, and edged dangerously close to ramming through another unpopular bill.  This bill, health care “reform,” threatens the liberty of all Americans and has only been pressed to the brink of passage through corrupt backroom deals and by levying selective taxes on minority groups across America.  America today stands at a precipice.

Read the rest of this entry »