November 6th was a disappointing day for freedom loving Americans everywhere. My projections two weeks out from the election were incorrect. Liberals today seem to want to pretend like Obama’s one to two percent victory was inevitable and that conservatives and polling organizations that believed Romney would win were biased and delusional. This is clearly not so, given the numerous polling outlets and internal polling by the campaigns which led many to believe that Romney would win.
What role the Walking Dead played (Chicago, elsewhere) remains to be seen (I’m confident Sheriff Rick would vote for Romney, if the polling place hadn’t been overrun by zombie hordes), as always, but clearly wasn’t the difference in the election. To some degree the events of Hurricane Sandy probably played some small role, but moreover I think there was, in retrospect, an underestimation of the role that Romney’s Mormonism played. Romney’s base did not fully turn out, and it is unclear as to why (other than his Mormonism). A Gallup poll found in 2009 that 22% of Americans would NOT vote for a Mormon and that only 5% would not vote for a Black man. Striking when you consider the areas of the country that Romney underperformed in (evangelical southern Ohio and Virginia, Florida).
That is not to say Romney was a great candidate–he wasn’t. We have always known, win or lose, that Romney was a transitional candidate. Romney is a bridge between the old Republican Party of George W. Bush and the new, hopefully more conservative GOP of the future.
The morning after the election, I wrote down my thoughts about the results and what Republicans and conservatives should do. I haven’t cared to think about politics or the state of our country much since that morning, but I am committed to continuing to fight as Sam Adams said, as a “tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” The Exile will continue. I do not think that it would be right to continue on with the blog without at least addressing the election results and my thoughts from that morning after:
1. We need to pray. For our country, for the hearts and minds of its people, and for the new president.
2. We need to reach out to Blacks and Hispanics. Not by compromising our values but by figuring out a way to make them realize that they are benefited more by conservative policies. Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote, not because Republicans oppose destroying our national sovereignty by opening our borders completely to illegal immigration, but because Hispanics are three times as likely to be poor than Whites (27% of Hispanics are below the poverty level). People earning less than $30,000 a year voted 62% in favor of Barack Obama (the only demographic income group which Obama won, interestingly). It is no surprise then, that Hispanics outperformed that national average slightly.
3. We need to keep fighting against the policies we know will hurt Americans. This was a tipping point election, but we need to keep fighting even though we are no longer the clearly center-right nation we used to be.
4. It was once said by Winston Churchill that Americans will always do the right thing after exhausting all other options–that is no longer the case. We need a sweeping national movement to bring us back, not from the brink–we are past that–but from where we’ve now gone. And we need to do it now, not in the months preceding an election. The question is whether it will take a national cataclysm to wake America up.
5. Conservatives need to get better at articulating conservatism, converting people to the cause, and growing the movement. Liberals are usually angry people. We can’t be angry like them. Instead of ridiculing low information voters and people who disagree with us, we need to make them think. Be cheerful warriors.
6. We need to rebuild the American family. The demographic problems created by broken families are growing, and are decisive.
7. Elections have consequences. And one of the consequences of this one is undoubtedly higher taxes for everyone, not just on the “rich.” Everyone supporting Obama keeps saying that we should go back to the Clinton-era tax rates because “hey, we did okay back then, right?” They betray their disingenuousness with those remarks, because you never hear those same people clamor for the Clinton-era spending levels. Never the less, higher taxes for some–small American flags for everyone else.
8. Obama won in 2012 by only 350,000 to 400,000 votes. This is not a mandate to run roughshod over the *bare* minority. George W. Bush won in 2000 but lost the popular vote. Having no clear mandate and being the uniter he campaigned as, he signed the atrocious compromises (read: Democrat-written) No Child Left Behind and a huge expansion of Medicare Part D. Having won by a bigger margin than Obama in 2004, he pursued Social Security Reform, but pulled back because the minorities in the House and Senate balked. Take heed, Republicans, rolling over and sharing blame for the coming calamity is not the key to victory.
9. Turnout models for Democrat leaning firms were correct this year. In 2008 Democrats were +7. This year they were +6. The incorrect polls did not fail to detect the drop in enthusiasm for Barack Obama. He got several million less votes this time around than in 2008, becoming the first president since Woodrow Wilson to be re-elected with less votes than he got in his first term. The polls did fail to detect the drop in enthusiasm for Mitt Romney by a silent voter class, though… Evangelicals. Romney got 2 million less votes than the uninspiring John McCain, and 4 million less votes than George W. Bush did in 2004.
10. Given the huge number of Democrats in the Senate who were up for election this year, this is a crushing setback for Republicans in the Senate–a decades spanning setback. Obama will get to appoint at least two more Supreme Court Justices, and this will ensure decades of liberal control of the Court–and when they get uncontested control of the Court… Freirechtsshule. Look it up.
11. We need to be very careful about playing in the stock market over the next four years.
12. Right now, young people can afford to vote based on their support of liberal social policy, and against good economic policy because there is an expansive social welfare system that will take care of them when they don’t have jobs.
13. “How fortunate for governments that people do not think. There is no thinking except in giving and executing commands. If it were otherwise human society could not exist.” – Adolf Hitler
“the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” – Winston Churchill
They seem to agree about democracy–but who do you think is more in favor of democracy?
14. We must embrace conservatism, not centrism, milque-toast establishmentarianism and technocracy.
15. We have a deep conservative bench to turn to: Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, Kelly Ayotte, etc. We need to build on this new generation of conservatives to build a new national brand.