State of the Race 2012: Electoral Map Update

20120823-173900.jpg

Dark Blue: Obama by 10+
Med. Blue: Obama by 5-10
Light Blue: Obama by 0-5
Dark Red: Romney by 10+
Med. Red: Romney by 5-10
Light Red: Romney by 0-5

If the presidential election were held today, August 23, 2012, the map provided here shows that Mitt Romney would narrowly edge President Obama 273 to 265. This makes the election look closer than it seems, because the 10% of undecided voters in most swing states have not yet committed. A quick update on each of our swing states:

PENNSYLVANIA – The race is tightening in this state and Romney and Ryan are finally starting to show signs of life in campaigning there in the recent week. the Romney campaign’s newly released energy plan today which focuses on expanding natural gas production in gas-rich states like Pennsylvania is sure to be popular in the Keystone State. This state is flipping, but isn’t there yet.

OHIO – Ohio is still stubbornly in a dead heat, with perhaps a narrow edge to the president. This state’s needle isn’t moving much.

VIRGINIA – Romney is starting to pull away a little and Virginians supporting Mitt are getting more organized. Still a toss up, but Romney would win today.

FLORIDA – No longer a toss up state in my book. This state is too expensive to advertise in for Obama to get bogged down in a state he isn’t likely to win. The thought was that Ryan’s Medicare plan would scare seniors to Obama. Not so. Apparently Ryan is wildly popular among seniors so far. Romney would win by more than 5 if the election were held today.

MICHIGAN – Recent polling has placed Romney ahead by a pretty good margin. I’d like to see a few more polls showing Romney putting some distance between himself and the regime before I call it for Romney, so if the election were held today I think Obama would garner a very narrow win.

WISCONSIN – The Obama campaign is foundering in Wisconsin, and poll after poll is showing the President behind his challenger. The campaign infrastructure from Gov. Walker’s recent recall election combined with Paul Ryan’s addition to the ticket has turned this state red. Obama might swing the pendulum back by November (he’s spending most of his time and money in decidedly red Iowa right now, though) but he is a decided loser there as of today. Romney is the narrow winner there.

COLORADO – Mitt Romney is slightly leading Obama in Colorado, and nothing has changed recently on that front.

NEVADA – Obama has a slim lead in Nevada but I expect his lead here to widen as November approaches. Today, Obama wins narrowly.

NEW HAMPSHIRE – Obama leads in New Hampshire narrowly, but I suspect this state will tighten up a little more before election day. Still, Obama would win a close one if the election were today.

SAFE STATE TO WATCH: Illinois.  Romney leads Obama in the Chicago suburbs.  He won’t win Illinois, but Obama’s lead there could soften to the point he needs to spend some campaign cash there.

-David

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