The Impact of Osama Bin Laden’s Death – Election of 2012 & Obama Approval Rating

Bin Laden's death may in the end have few political implications for Barack Obama. Possibly because at the heart of it, many of Obama's supporters don't really care about prosecuting the War on Terror.

The Mississippi River is flooding in Tennessee and other river bearing states this week, and the results have been catastrophic. Thankfully, the river’s flooding in Memphis has recently crested. So too, it seems has the bounce President Obama received from the successful operation to kill Osama Bin Laden. The one negative that many feared might result from the killing of Bin Laden on Obama’s watch was that it might have ensured Obama’s re-election in 2012, and the continuation of the policies that will destroy the America that the porn-aholic Bin Laden fought so very hard against (possibly aiming to conquer America to plunder its many porn-stars).

In any case, an Obama re-election would be more catastrophic to America than any flood ever could be. There is hope, however. According to the most accurate pollster in the business (Rasmussen–can’t argue with the results), Obama’s approval rating in the wake of OBL’s kill shots went from 46% to 51%. However, that 51% has within the last week deflated to 47%, well within the margin of error for a 0% bump.

Notably, Obama’s attempts to milk the Osama execution for a public relations bonanza had meager effects upon those who strongly support the president, a rating which still stands at 25%, up only 5% from its all-time low last month. The bigger difference has proved to be in those who strongly disapprove of Obama’s performance as president. That number stands now at 37%, which is a significant drop from the 46% who strongly disapproved not long ago.

Ultimately, the Bin Laden bounce may be fleeting and if anything, it has not increased the support of his base. For now, it seems that it has succeeded in blunting the growing discord among independents. For how long remains to be seen, but those numbers of people who strongly disapprove is again rising, and opposition to Obama on issues like healthcare and the economy remain strong enough catalysts once the campaign rhetoric elevates again to November 2010 levels to reignite those calling for Obama’s ouster. After all, Bin Laden’s blood will not fill anyone’s gas tank.

But, about that ouster… Though Obama’s poll numbers still reflect intense vulnerability in 2012, there does not appear to be any strong Republican candidate to exploit Obama’s foundering. Obama polls barely above a generic Republican challenger in polling taken even after the Bin Laden success, and well below the hallowed 50% mark. However, when any of the major announced Republican challengers’ names are attached to those same polls, Obama’s numbers jump over 50% and it is not even close. Not good. That may be a remnant of the short lived Bin Laden bounce, but it still doesn’t look very good when your real candidate lags far behind the hypothetical generic candidate. It means the brand is good but the personalities are not.

The greatest obstacle to defeating Obama is the Republican baggage that we are currently stuck with in the primary race. The great thing for Democrats about Obama in 2008 was that he was a blank slate. The people who voted for him could make him into whoever they wanted him to be, because he had no paper trail. That is what we need now. We don’t need resurgent politicians from 20 years ago, we need Herman Cains, Marco Rubios, Allen Wests, Chris Christies and Bobby Jindals. No baggage. No B.S.

They have all refused to run thus far, rightly estimating that they are probably not ready to be president. The thing that they may refuse to see is that Barack Obama was not ready to be president either, and is still not ready. A Marco Rubio candidacy is a winning one, and it wouldn’t even be close. The candidates running right now are good guys, sure, but I don’t see anyone yet that has the energy to run the race that needs to be run. Surprise me, Republicans.

-David

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